Q2 2022 - The Pohrer Report
Market: Palm Beach Island
Asset Class: Single Family Homes, Condo & Townhomes
Q2 Market Data
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for single family homes and condo and townhomes on Palm Beach Island. We recognize that there are nuances by location and based on specific property features even within Palm Beach Island. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
This report is produced in partnership between Elizabeth Vollman Tristan at EVT Real Estate and Gary Pohrer. Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches and Palm Beach MLS. Note, PAPA data is posted on a 2-4 week delay, therefore, we report on data a month in the rears to ensure we’re capturing the most updated landscape.
Q1 2022 - The Pohrer Report
Market: Palm Beach Island
Asset Class: Single Family Homes, Condo & Townhomes
Q1 Market Data
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for single family homes and condo and townhomes on Palm Beach Island. We recognize that there are nuances by location and based on specific property features even within Palm Beach Island. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
This report is produced in partnership between Elizabeth Vollman Tristan at EVT Real Estate and Gary Pohrer. Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches and Palm Beach MLS. Note, PAPA data is posted on a 2-4 week delay, therefore, we report on data a month in the rears to ensure we’re capturing the most updated landscape.
Q4 2021 - The Pohrer Report
Market: Palm Beach Island
Asset Class: Single Family Homes, Condo & Townhomes
Q4 Market Data
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for single family homes and condo and townhomes on Palm Beach Island. We recognize that there are nuances by location and based on specific property features even within Palm Beach Island. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
This report is produced in partnership between Elizabeth Vollman Tristan at EVT Real Estate and Gary Pohrer. Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches and Palm Beach MLS. Note, PAPA data is posted on a 2-4 week delay, therefore, we report on data a month in the rears to ensure we’re capturing the most updated landscape.
Q3 2021 - The Pohrer Report
Market: Palm Beach Island
Asset Class: Single Family Homes, Condo & Townhomes
Q3 Market Data
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for single family homes and condo and townhomes on Palm Beach Island. We recognize that there are nuances by location and based on specific property features even within Palm Beach Island. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
This report is produced in partnership between Elizabeth Vollman Tristan at EVT Real Estate and Gary Pohrer. Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches and Palm Beach MLS. Note, PAPA data is posted on a 2-4 week delay, therefore, we report on data a month in the rears to ensure we’re capturing the most updated landscape.
September 2021: Monthly Insights - Palm Beach Island
Market: Palm Beach Island
Asset Class: Single Family Homes, Condo & Townhomes
Summary:
We had another busy summer. Overall transaction volume ($) for single family homes is up 110% YoY from $108.6M in August 2020 to $228.3M in August 2021. It’s up 376% from August 2019 to August 2021. This continues to be driven by large price appreciation in the Palm Beach market and the continued increase in demand post pandemic.
Price appreciation on the single family home asset class for the year just hit 52.9% when you compare 2020 to 2021. We have not seen this level of 1 year price appreciation in the Palm Beach market since the year 2000 where appreciation from 1999 to 2000 hit 43%. We’re also seeing price appreciation for the condo & townhome market coming in at ~10%, not quite as high as single family homes.
Single family home inventory continues to remain at all time low levels for the last three months (~34 homes on market). This is down 69% YoY.
Single family home days on market continue to be driven down further due to low inventory levels. August hit a record low for average days on the market of 102. That is down 69% YoY and down 37% compared to the previous month of July.
Palm Beach Island - Single Family Homes
Single Family Homes Summary: Transaction Volume (# of sales)
Summer transaction volume continues to be up significantly compared to pre-covid summer levels of 2019.
August transaction volume increased 36% from July but is down 12% YoY from last August.
Waterfront transaction volume decreased from 4 to 3 homes sold from July to August but is up from 0 to 3 homes sold compared to last year August sales.
Non-Waterfront transaction volume is up 71% from July to August and is down 29% YoY.
All Homes on Palm Beach: Transaction Volume (#)
Single Family Homes Summary: Sales Volume ($)
Sales volume ($) in August is up 110% YoY and is up 376% from August 2019 to August 2021.
Sales volume is flat to down slightly (3%) from July 2021 to August 2021.
Waterfront transactions for August makeup 37% of the sales volume, whereas non-waterfront transactions represent 63% of the total sales volume for August.
All Homes Sold on Palm Beach: Sales Volume ($)
*2021 represents sales volume through August of 2021.
All Homes Sold on Palm Beach: Sales Volume ($) by Month
Single Family Homes Price Per Square Foot ($)
We’re continuing to see PPSF hold strong as inventory is low and demand remains strong.
PPSF ($) is up August YoY from $1,318 to $3,148 (139%).
Looking at this metric monthly can be bumpy due to 1 or 2 record breaking sales skewing the numbers, so it’s important to look at the annual rate which currently sits at 52.9% YoY PPSF appreciation.
Non-waterfront PPSF ($) has been inching up steadily all year.
All Homes Sold on Palm Beach: PPSF ($)
This chart reflects the $ / sq foot for all non waterfront properties.
This chart reflects the $ / sq foot for all waterfront properties
Single Family Homes Active Listings (#)
Inventory continues to remain at all time low levels for the last three months (~34 homes on market). This is down 69% YoY.
Single Family Homes Days on Market (#)
Days on market continue to be driven down further due to low inventory levels. August hit a record low for average days on the market of 102. That is down 69% YoY and down 37% compared to the previous month of July.
Compounding Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) - Palm Beach Single Family Homes
2021 CAGR continues to inch up in August. The one year growth rate sits at 53%. We have not seen this level of growth since the year 2000.
Over the last 40 years, Palm Beach has had a CAGR of 8.06% with a total of 9 down years.
August Single Family Home Sales
Palm Beach Island - Condo & Townhomes
Condo & Townhomes Summary: Transaction Volume (# of sales)
Transaction Volume (#) is up 72% YoY for the month of August (43 in 2021 compared to 25 in 2020). The increase is largely driven by South End transactions which made up 31 of the 43 closed deals during the month of August.
In 2021 the number of transactions has been steadily declining, coming off the April high, whereas last year the volume remained consistent and fairly flat month by month (bouncing around from 15-25 sales per month). This year the monthly volume ranges from 23-99 sales per month.
Condo & Townhomes Closed Transactions (#)
Condo & Townhomes Closed Transactions (#) - by Month
Condo & Townhomes Summary: Sales Volume ($)
Total sales volume is up 105% YoY (50M in 2021, 24M in 2020) for the month of August.
August Sales volume is split pretty evenly between in-town transactions ($27M) compared to south end transactions ($23M).
Condo & Townhomes Sales Volume ($)
Condo & Townhomes Sales Volume ($) - by Month
Condo & Townhomes Summary: Price Per Square Foot ($)
August was a record level of PPSF for the condo & townhome asset class for 2021. It hit $826 PPSF. This spike was largely driven by a record sale in 2 Breakers Row which sold for $4,550 PPSF.
Again, looking at this metric for the entire year of 2021 it sits right around $737 PPSF which is up 10% compared to 2020.
We’re not seeing as high of a CAGR for the condo & townhouse asset class as we’re seeing in the single family asset class (10%+ annual growth rate compared to 50%+ YoY annual growth rate for single family homes)
Condo & Townhomes Price per Square Foot ($)
Condo & Townhomes Summary: Active Listings (#)
Inventory is down 74% YoY and has been hovering around ~65-70 active listings for the last few months.
Condo & Townhomes Summary: Days on Market (#)
Days on market are a bit more bumpy for the condo & townhouse market. We have not seen the same steady decline in days on the market for condo and townhomes. In general condos and townhomes will sit on market and not move as quickly as the single family homes.
Days on market is down 38% YoY.
Compounding Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) - Condo & Townhomes
Price appreciation for the Condo & Townhome asset class is not quite as strong as what we’ve seen for single family homes.
In-Town has historically outperformed the South End annual growth rate.
Condo & Townhome: In-Town CAGR
Condo & Townhome: In-Town annual growth rate
Condo & Townhome: South End CAGR
Condo & Towmhome: South End annual growth rate
August Condo & Townhome Sales
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for single family homes and condo and townhomes on Palm Beach Island. We recognize that there are nuances by location and based on specific property features even within Palm Beach Island. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches and Palm Beach MLS. Note, PAPA data is posted on a 2-4 week delay, therefore, we report on data a month in the rears to ensure we’re capturing the most updated landscape.
June 2021: Monthly Insights - El Cid Single Family Homes
Market: El Cid, West Palm Beach
Asset Class: Single Family Homes
Summary:
In June of 2021, we saw transaction volume (1 sales in total) drop significantly compared to the record levels we saw in Feb, March, April and May of 2021 (5-7). Transaction volume was down 80% MoM (5 to 1) and 67% YoY (3 to 1). The decline is explained by some slowing due to seasonality but also due to a 20% YoY drop in inventory.
Sales volume followed a similar trend. YoY sales volume declined 66%. MoM sales volume was down 87%.
PPSF continues to be up YoY, it was up 11% YoY for the month of June. MoM PPSF remained flat ($789 sq/ft in May compared to $787 sq/ft in June).
Note in general transaction volume in the El Cid neighborhood is a low single digit, ranging from 0-7 sales per month.
Transaction Volume (# of closed sales) - El Cid
Sales Volume ($) by Month - El CId
For the actual numbers and raw data, please refer to table below:
Price ($) / Square Foot by Month - El Cid
This chart reflects the blended $ / sq foot for both waterfront and non waterfront properties.
Active Listings by Month - El Cid
The Archives: Historical Real Estate Trends (1980 - 2021)
We include the archives in each month's report to provide you with the bigger picture on El Cid residential real estate trends. Although we do not believe that the past is a predictor of the future, such trends can help to inform your perspective and decision making strategy when buying or selling real estate.
Sales Volume ($) - El Cid (1980 - 2021)
2021: sales volume for the first half of 2021 continues to be strong. Half way through the year and there has been $50.5M in sales volume compared to $61.5M in all of 2020.
1H of 2021 = $50.5M in sales volume compared to 1H of 2020 = $24.5M, representing 105% YoY growth in sales volume for El CId single family home market.
Price ($) / Square Foot (PPSF) - El Cid (1980 - 2021)
PPSF is up 4% in 2021 ($804) compared to 2020 ($557)
Interesting to note:
PPSF is up 50% YoY for non-waterfront ($524 to $788), whereas water front PPSF is only up 14% YoY ($867 to $987).
Transaction Volume (# of closed sales) - El Cid (1980 - 2021)
1H of 2021 there have been a total of 24 closed transactions for homes in El Cid compared to 7 closed transaction in 1H of 2020. Note, last year 1H was a very uncertain time with Covid-19. Transaction volume really began to pick up again in July of 2020.
Compounding Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) - El Cid Single Family Homes
Over the last 40 years the El Cid market has had 11 down years and a 40 year CAGR of 7.92%
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the West Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for single family homes in the El Cid neighborhood. We recognize that there are nuances by location and based on specific property features even within El Cid. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches MLS.
June 2021: Monthly Insights - Palm Beach Island Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
Market: Palm Beach Island
Asset Class: Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
Summary:
In June of 2021, we saw transaction volume (40 sales in total) drop significantly compared to the record levels we saw in Feb, March, April and May of 2021. Transaction volume was still up 74% YoY (23 to 40) and down 46% MoM (74 to 40). The decline is explained by the lowest levels of inventory for sale on Palm Beach Island. Active listings are down 70% from last July.
Sales volume followed a similar trend. YoY sales volume increased 64% and was down 47% MoM (see actual dollar amounts in the table below). Sales were split pretty evenly across South End vs Town transactions.
Price / Square Foot continues to inch up with single digit YoY growth of 7% for the month of June. MoM growth was fairly constant ($852 sq/ft in May compared to $843 sq/ft in June). The growth on a price/square foot basis of the Condo / Co-Op / Townhome asset class continues to lag that of what we’re seeing on the single family home front on island. The growth in price/square foot is really being driven by the South End condos / co-ops / townhouses - YoY growth on South End is 21% vs 5% growth in Town.
Transaction Volume (# of closed sales) - Palm Beach Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
Sales Volume ($) - Palm Beach Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
For the actual numbers and raw data, please refer to table below:
Price ($) / Square Foot - Palm Beach Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
This chart reflects the blended $ / sq foot for both south end and in town condos, co-ops and townhomes.
This chart reflects the $ / sq foot for all south end condos, co-ops and townhomes.
This chart reflects the $ / sq foot for all in town condos, co-ops and townhomes.
Active Listings - Palm Beach (by month)
The Archives: Historical Real Estate Trends (1980 - 2021)
We include the archives in each month's report to provide you with the bigger picture on Palm Beach residential real estate. Although we do not believe that the past is a predictor of the future, such trends can help to inform your perspective and decision making strategy when buying or selling real estate.
Sales Volume ($) - Palm Beach Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
2021: sales volume for the first half of 2021 continues to be strong. Half way through the year and there has been $592M in sales volume compared to $493M in all of 2020.
1H of 2020 = $201.8M in sales volume compared to 1H of 2021 = $592.3M, representing 193% YoY growth in sales volume for the condo / co-op / townhome Palm Beach market.
Price ($) / Square Foot - Palm Beach Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
Price ($) / Sq Ft is up 2% in 2021 ($780) compared to 2020 ($765)
Interesting to note:
Price ($) / Sq Ft is up 21% YoY for the South End Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes ($503 compared to $606)
Price ($) / Sq Ft is only up 5% YoY for the in town Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes ($1,211 compared to $1,157)
Transaction Volume (# of closed sales) - Palm Beach Condos / Co-Ops / Townhomes
1H of 2021 there have been a total of 454 closed transactions for condos / co-ops / townhomes on Palm Beach Island.
1H of 2020 = 166 transactions for condos / co-ops / townhomes closed compared to 454 transactions in 1H 2021, 173% increase YoY in transaction volume. In comparison to a non-covid year, 1H of 2019 yielded 217 transactions for condos / co-ops / townhomes.
The levels of transactions that we’re seeing are greater than the levels we saw in the 2000-2004 time period. Demand is at an all time high.
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for condos, co-ops and townhomes on Palm Beach Island. We recognize that there are nuances by location, by building and based on specific property features even within Palm Beach Island. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches MLS.
June 2021: Monthly Insights - Palm Beach Island Single Family Homes
Market: Palm Beach Island
Asset Class: Single Family Homes
Summary:
In June of 2021, we saw transaction volume (19 sales in total) drop from the highs of March, April and May. Transaction volume was down 30% YoY (27 to 19) and down 27% MoM (26 to 19). The decline is explained by the lowest levels of inventory for sale on Palm Beach Island. Active listings are down 70% from last July. Continues to be a fantastic opportunity for sellers to capitalize during this market.
The decline in Sales volume ($) was not as great as the transaction volume. YoY sales volume declined 20% and was down 19% MoM (see actual dollar amounts in the table below). This was largely due to two large oceanfront property sales that traded for $109M and $35M, bringing up the total sales volume significantly even though total transactions were down for the month.
Price / Square Foot hit a near record high in June reaching $3,008 / sq foot. I would not expect this to be the new normal as this months transaction volume contained two ocean front properties which trade at a premium $ / sq foot even for waterfront.
Transaction Volume (# of closed sales) - Palm Beach Single Family Homes (by month)
Sales Volume ($) - Palm Beach Single Family Homes (by month)
For the actual numbers and raw data, please refer to table below:
Price ($) / Square Foot - Palm Beach Single Family Homes (by month)
This chart reflects the blended $ / sq foot for both waterfront and non waterfront properties.
This chart reflects the $ / sq foot for all non waterfront properties.
This chart reflects the $ / sq foot for all waterfront properties
Active Listings - Palm Beach (by month)
This Month's Featured Sale: $109M , 1840 South Ocean Blvd.
Second-highest Palm Beach residential transaction recorded ever, closed at $109M or $6,871 square/ft
16,000 Square Feet, 9 Beds | 10 Baths | 3 1/2 Baths
Waterfront property spanning from the ocean to the lake
The Archives: Historical Real Estate Trends (1980 - 2021)
We include the archives in each month's report to provide you with the bigger picture on Palm Beach residential real estate. Although we do not believe that the past is a predictor of the future, such trends can help to inform your perspective and decision making strategy when buying or selling real estate.
Sales Volume ($) - Palm Beach Single Family Homes (annual)
2021: sales volume for the first half of 2021 continues to be strong. We are half way through the year and there have been a total of $1.9B in sales volume almost equaling the total 2020 sales of $1.98B.
YoY growth is strong. In 1H of 2020 there were a total $878,098 in sales compared to 1H of 2021 = $1.91B, 113% YoY growth in sales.
Price ($) / Square Foot - Palm Beach Single Family Homes (annual)
Price ($) / Sq Ft is up 46% in 2021 ($2,553) compared to 2020 ($1,751)
Interesting to note:
In the last 2 years we’ve seen price appreciation upwards of 55% which is unlike anything we’ve seen in this market to date in such a short period of time.
From the early ‘80’s to the late ‘90’s price appreciation averaged 9% annually. Average price appreciation over the last 10 years has been ~21%.
Transaction Volume (# of closed sales) - Palm Beach Single Family Homes
1H of 2021 there have been a total of 146 closed transactions for single family homes on Palm Beach Island.
1H of 2020 = 89 single family homes were sold on Palm Beach Island compared to 146 transactions in 1H 2021, 64% increase YoY in transaction volume.
The levels of transactions that we’re seeing are similar to the levels we saw in the late 1990’s into early 2000. Demand is back at an all time high.
Compounding Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) - Palm Beach Single Family Homes
Over the last 40 years, Palm Beach has had a CAGR of 7.93% with a total of 9 down years.
The data represented in this monthly report is a roll up of a subset of the Palm Beach market and is intended to provide an overview of transaction activity for single family homes on Palm Beach Island. We recognize that there are nuances by location and based on specific property features even within Palm Beach Island. If you are interested in receiving a more detailed analysis on the value of your property or a property you’re considering please contact us below with your request and we can provide a more detailed comparable analysis report. We look forward to hearing from you.
Data Source: All data presented in this report is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches MLS.
Palm Beach Real Estate Never Goes Down.
I often hear people say “Palm Beach real estate never goes down.” which always triggers a gut reaction inside me that says “that can’t be true?”
I’m going to answer this question for myself….once and for all...with data.
First let’s look at the Price ($) / square foot over a 40 year time horizon.
At a high level when you look at Price ($) / Square Foot over a 40 year time span, YES that line is up and to the right. Over the last 40 year time horizon Palm Beach real estate has had a CAGR = 7.93%. For point of comparison the S&P 500 returned an average of 9.1% over the same time horizon.
But when you view this 40+ year chart you start to see that there have been periods where prices HAVE gone down and periods where prices have remained relatively flat. To be more precise there have been 9 down years in the last 40 years. Of those 9 down years 3 of them have been a decline of greater than 10%. The biggest correction we saw in the last 40 years was in 2009 during the financial crisis, prices dropped 18% off of the 2008 high.
There are several scenarios in the last 40+ years where if you bought and sold at the wrong part of an economic cycle you either lost money and/or your investment appreciated at a rate lower than inflation (you didn’t capture that 7.9% CAGR). There have ALSO been scenarios over the last 40+ years if you bought or sold at the right part of the economic cycle you maximized your CAGR.
In Summary
Palm Beach real estate DOES go down.
If your intention is to buy and hold Palm Beach real estate for multiple decades your entry point matters less.
If you are buying and/or selling with a shorter term horizon or uncertain about your holding duration, entry point matters and can dramatically impact your return.
When considering other investment or store of value outside of the stock market Palm Beach continues to be a strong option in effort to diversify.
Data Source: All data presented in this post is from PAPA, Palm Beach County Property Appraiser public database and/or The Beaches MLS. The data used in this post represents data from our palm beach island, single family home data set.
hello.
It all begins with an idea.
Palm Beach, I’m fascinated by its real estate market.
What has happened? What’s going to happen?
It’s here where I write about things I’m trying to understand as both an investor and real estate professional.
A bit about me, I’m currently investing in real estate and recently joined Douglas Elliman Palm Beach as a real estate associate. My path here has not been typical. I landed here by way of New York City after working for 10+ years as a marketing executive for high growth startups. Most recently, I ran marketing at General Assembly.
Thank you for stopping by. I hope you find value in what I’m “thinking out loud”. If you’d like to stay in touch you can sign up for my newsletter here or send me an email, liz@elizabethtristan.com.
Cheers,
Liz